Good morning, everyone. Paula Soler here reporting from Brussels with your weekly EU policy lookahead.
Tuesday is a busy one: the European Commission will roll out a new set of economic and social policy recommendations.
The autumn package - excuse the jargon - pinpoints the priorities, risks and policy recommendations for national governments to boost growth and reduce public debt.
The proposals are based on the European Commission’s latest economic forecasts, released earlier this month, which still see growth in the EU despite the tripling of tariffs to 15% tariffs on EU goods imposed by the United States.
The unbalanced nature of the deal signed during the summer between President Trump and President Ursula von der Leyen had cast concerns about the impact on business activity in Europe, the Commisison however said it had provided stability and cushioned the impact of tariffs. The growth projections are now seen as stronger compared to the spring forecasts.
“The EU's highly open economy remains susceptible to ongoing trade restrictions, but the trade deals reached between the US and its trading partners, including the EU, have alleviated some of the uncertainties that overshadowed the Spring Forecast,” the Commission said.
For this year, the EU economy is expected to grow by 1.4%, with Poland and Spain doing much of the heavy lifting. Warsaw and Madrid stand out with projected growth rates of 3.2% and 2.9% in 2025 — well ahead of the European pack.
Meanwhile, the bloc’s three biggest economies — Germany, France and Italy — are barely growing.
Still, the Commission warns about the growth outlook over the medium term even if the shock from the initial tariff rate is smaller tha expected.
In its forecast, the EU's executive arm noted that persistent uncertainty over trade policy continues to weigh on economic activity and has not been fully subsided. It also argues that further escalation of geopolitical tensions could intensify supply shocks. A growing number of climate-related disasters could also hinder growth, the report read, underscoring the impact of green policies even as governments push it down as priority.
Growth could be boosted, however, through "reforms and the competitiveness agenda, higher defence spending focused on EU production, and new trade agreements could bolster economic activity more than projected”.
The Commission has put competitiveness at the core of its executive action since von der Leyen secured a second term as chief last year.
Tomorrow’s package will also include an assessment of employment and social developments across the EU, evaluations of national draft budgets for 2026 and policy advice for eurozone countries. A tricky situation across the union as budgets become a point of tension between government and opposition. France is yet to approve one and Spain is still on hold.
Stay tuned and follow all the latest updates on Euronews.com. |